The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has slightly lowered its GDP growth forecast for Poland in 2025 to 3.3%, down from the 3.4% projected in February.

The revision reflects heightened global uncertainty, the ripple effects of new US tariffs, and softer external demand, especially from Germany.

For 2026, the Bank anticipates Poland's economy will expand by 3.2%.

The forecasts were released this week in the EBRD’s ‘Regional Economic Prospects’ report.

The findings highlight that Poland has limited direct trade exposure to the United States, and the adverse effects of the increased US import tariffs are expected to be largely indirect, transmitted mainly through Germany and supply chain connections in the automotive industry.

Yet despite significant uncertainty surrounding Poland’s export outlook, domestic demand remains strong.

Slowing inflation and rising real household incomes are expected to support private consumption. In the short term, GDP growth is also projected to benefit from accelerated investments, particularly in infrastructure and energy, financed in part by EU funds, along with increased defence spending.

Poland is not alone in facing downgraded growth prospects for 2025. The EBRD has lowered its forecasts for most of the economies it monitors and now expects average growth across its regions to reach 3.0% this year, down from the 3.2% projected in its February 2025 forecast.

Growth across EBRD economies is projected to rise to 3.4% in 2026, though this too marks a slight downward revision of 0.1 percentage point from the Bank’s February forecast.

The EBRD remains one of Poland’s key institutional investors, having committed over €16 billion to 560 projects since beginning operations in the country in 1991. In 2024, the Bank set a new record with €1.3 billion invested in Poland.