Poland’s inflation eased less than expected in January, raising questions about the likelihood of interest rate cuts in the coming months.

The statistics office reported on Friday that the consumer price index rose 2.2% year-on-year, compared with economists’ forecasts of a decline to 1.9% from December’s 2.4%.

The unexpected uptick, largely driven by volatile food prices at the start of the year, is set to be a key topic for the Monetary Policy Council in March, said Monika Kurtek, chief economist at Bank Pocztowy SA.

Kurtek noted in a briefing that changes to the inflation basket by the statistics office “may prompt the Council to postpone its decision on lowering interest rates until April.”

However, other economists, from Bank Millennium SA, Alior Bank SA, and PKO Bank Polski SA, say the January figures are unlikely to stop the Monetary Policy Council from resuming rate cuts next month, Bloomberg reports.

“In my opinion, the reading in January does not rule out an interest rate cut in March,” said Grzegorz Maliszewski, chief economist at Bank Millennium.

However, elevated inflation could influence expectations for the central bank’s monetary easing beyond March. Economists are now closely watching February’s inflation data and potential revisions to January’s figures due to changes in the inflation basket.

Central Bank Governor Adam Glapinski has not ruled out the possibility of restarting rate cuts in March, following a pause earlier this year. The Monetary Policy Council cut borrowing costs by a total of 175 basis points last year.

Inflation remains below the central bank’s target after a sharp slowdown in 2025, a deceleration that has coincided with robust economic growth.

Data released last Thursday showed that Poland’s economy grew 4% in the fourth quarter, the fastest pace in more than three years, supporting prospects for continued growth and potentially limiting policymakers’ willingness to pursue large rate cuts.