Retail sales in Poland declined 0.5% year-on-year in constant prices in February, contrary to expectations of a 3.2% annual increase, according to the statistics office GUS on Monday.
This decline follows a strong 4.8% year-on-year increase in January, which had led to optimistic expectations for February. However, the weaker-than-expected result indicates that a consistent growth trend in sales may still be some time off.
“Recent retail sales data has been highly volatile, so we view the February figures with some caution, just as we did the exceptionally strong results in January,” PKO BP said in a comment.
“The overall picture for Q1 2025 is likely to indicate continued solid consumption, though growing at a slightly slower pace than in Q4 2024. March data may show a [further] slowdown in sales growth due to the timing of Easter, which fell at the end of March in 2024 but will be in April this year,” PKO BP went on to add.
Despite the February decline, consumption is expected to remain a key driver of Poland’s economic growth, which is projected to reach around 3.5% in 2025, BNE Intellinews reports.
According to GUS data, five out of eight major retail segments saw year-on-year growth in February, though the expansion rates were slower compared to the previous month.
Sales of cars and car parts saw a significant slowdown, with a 5.1% year-on-year growth in February, down from 21.9% in January.
In the pharmaceuticals and cosmetics segment, sales growth eased to 7.4% year-on-year, following a sharp 12.8% increase in the previous month.
Textiles, clothing, and footwear sales grew by 6% year-on-year in February, compared to 8.8% in January, while sales of furniture, audio and video equipment, and household appliances rose by 5.8% year-on-year, a sharp decline from January’s 13.6% growth.
Whereas sales in the press, books, and specialised stores category grew by 1.7% year-on-year in February, reversing an 11.3% year-on-year drop in the previous month.
Moreover, on a monthly basis, retail sales in constant prices decreased by 6% in February, following an 11.3% drop in January, according to GUS data.
In current prices, retail turnover increased by 0.6% year-on-year in February, down from a 6.1% rise in January. On a month-on-month basis, turnover dropped by 6% in February, following a 17% decline in the previous month.
Seasonally adjusted data revealed a 3.2% month-on-month decrease in retail turnover in February, following a 0.6% month-on-month increase in January, according to GUS.
Retail sales and other high-frequency macroeconomic indicators are unlikely to have a major impact on Poland’s monetary policy outlook, reports suggest. However, they could provide the National Bank of Poland (NBP) with some considerations for potentially cutting interest rates slightly earlier than originally expected.
“The weaker-than-expected February retail sales data out of Poland suggests that the economy may have slowed a bit more sharply than we had been anticipating this quarter,” according to Capital Economics.
“While this won’t prompt the central bank to cut interest rates at its meeting next month, there is a growing risk of monetary easing arriving earlier than we currently forecast in 2026.”